Across their different health benefits, probiotics are, of course, one of the success stories of the dietary supplements market, and that success is reflected in current sales data. And that success is expected to continue as Euromonitor forecasts a global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% between 2021 and 2026, rather neatly 1.5 times the CAGR of supplements in general.5
Timothy Lawlor, global market insight lead of IFF Health, picked up on this point.
Global probiotic supplement growth has consistently outpaced the dietary supplements category in total...
“This trend is projected to continue as the market moves past the pandemic-driven baseline reset that is unfolding during 2021.”
Precisely where and when this baseline will settle is one of the puzzles of the current period. How consumers view the near and further-off future is changing by the day, given that many of the insecurities and uncertainties triggered at the beginning of the pandemic have never really disappeared.
For instance, research conducted in mid-May 2020 with consumers in the US, China and Italy6 found 15% of US respondents confirming usage of probiotic supplements six months prior to the study date. That figure rose to 25% at the time of the research, and then was projected to drop slightly to 22% three-to-six months into the future. The figures for China were more pronounced, showing a 23% usage rate climbing to 48%, before dropping back to the same 23% level.
However, in May 2020, the arc of the pandemic was widely anticipated to be a relatively short one, and the impacts of the virus were not fully understood. So, it would be reasonable to expect that usage levels have in fact stayed significantly higher than the six-month drop-off rate predicted, depending on consumer sentiment in each individual market. Unlike China and the US, for example, consumer marketing in the European Union is not permitted to attribute any health benefits to probiotics—including around immunity. Nonetheless, overall awareness of probiotic and ‘good’ bacteria in general, and of their immunity benefits in particular, appears to be stronger than ever. Figures for earlier this year suggest that around a quarter of European consumers associate probiotic benefits with immunity, and 30% have been taking probiotics to support resistance to COVID-19.
Where claims could be made, global research from Mintel shows that, in the five years to February 2020,
All of this suggests that promoting the immunity benefits of probiotics is a significant opportunity within Europe and certainly beyond.
Probiotics are one of the most studied sets of ingredients in relation to immune health, particularly where there is a focus on upper respiratory tract infections. Given the multiple levels on which probiotics operate, from digestive health to women’s health – as well as immunity – some have even suggested that health professionals should set a Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) for microbes, just as is done for other key nutrients9. This supplementation of safe and beneficial microbes would help to counteract the lack of them in our general diet.
References 5. Euromonitor, Consumer Health, Sept 2021 edition 6. Natural Marketing Institute, carried out with 3,000 consumers across the three markets. 7. Multi-sponsor surveys in France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Russia, Poland and the UK, reported in New Nutrition Business. 8. Mintel GNPD 2020. 9. Hill, 2018, The Biochemist.