Before sharing some of the highlights from this edition and putting a New AG perspective on the situation in Ukraine, let me pick up on something that I mentioned a few times last year – namely, the ban by Sri Lanka’s government on nearly all fertilizer imports with the goal to become the first country to have organic only farming, although it should be said that some water-soluble fertilizers were still permitted. Shortly after our last issue of 2021 was published, the Sri Lanka government reversed its ban, under pressure from farmers who had been protesting for several months and combined with a surge in food price inflation.
Energy and food price inflation are one of the effects from the unfolding tragedy in Ukraine. There is of course a significant agricultural dimension to the events there. New AG International did a country report on Ukraine, only as recently as September last year (here).
And of course, one of the dynamics of fertilizer pricing is that high natural gas prices mean high nitrogen fertilizer prices. But the spike in fertilizer price is not just limited to nitrogen prices. Across the fertilizer products, prices have been at or near to record highs in the Covid pandemic, and so we are seeing the impact from one crisis being exacerbated by the next.
The general trade patterns many readers will be familiar with but for those who are not, Russia is a major exporter of fertilizer (finished products) and ammonia used to make fertilizers. Much of the exported ammonia goes to North Africa to the phosphate producers. There is a pipeline that goes from southern Russia to the Ukrainian port of Odessa where the ammonia is shipped in liquid tankers. Russian and Belarus account for about 40 percent of the global trade in potash. As a reminder, there were already sanctions on Belarus that were impacting its potash exports. There are plenty of potash projects in the pipeline that could conceivably help to fill the gaps, but they might be some time off – you can’t switch on a potash mine in quite the same way that you can increase ammonia production. As we discuss in our feature on Australia’s sulphate of potash projects, perhaps the current fertilizer markets will encourage a speeding-up in those projects, following a stumble by the leading two companies.
Putting this all into a New AG context of biological inputs and specialty fertilizers – where do we begin? The first is something I heard during the first crisis – namely, high fertilizer prices will help guide growers towards biological products (such as N fixation) and encourage the use of technology that enhances the efficiency per tonne of the fertilizer that a farmer buys – more nutrient for your buck, as it were. This might see a surge of interest in SCRSFs, which I’m sure will be a discussion point in Poland at the New AG International annual event, which has a dedicated programme on SCRSFs (here).
Across the fertilizer products, prices have been at or near to record highs in the Covid pandemic, and so we are seeing the impact from one crisis being exacerbated by the next
Food security and food price inflation From an agricultural perspective, the Ukraine conflict is likely to bring into focus two key dynamics: food security and food price inflation. It’s here that certain policies, such as the EU’s Green Deal, might have to reconsider some of its targets, which include the objective that “at least 25 percent of the EU’s agricultural land under organic farming.” Indeed, the EU has already given an early indication that its Green Deal might need to be re-calibrated:
“We need to keep a close eye on the objectives of these policies in the context of food security,” said agriculture commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski in a Euroactiv report, 2 March, after a special meeting with the EU-27 agriculture ministers. “We don’t want to toss these strategies aside, we don’t want to call them into question,” continued the commissioner. “But there are other elements which need to be looked at again, given the current situation.”
However, Copa-Cogeca, which represents the interests of the agri-food, forestry and fishery cooperatives among the EU Institutions, had already cast doubt on the targets long before the conflict in Ukraine. In a statement, 16 March 2021, Cogeca president Ramón Armengol said a comprehensive impact assessment of the Green Deal and the accompanying regulations was needed.
In December 2021, Wageningen University published its Impact Assessment of EC 2030 Green Deal
Targets for Sustainable Crop Production. Among its conclusions: “According to the assessment at macro level, the implementation of the objectives of the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies will result in a decrease of the produced volumes per crop in the entire EU on average ranging from 10 to 20 percent (scenario 4).”
When reading the report, it can be seen that this scenario 4 does not include the effect of the increase of organic production to 25 percent of the agricultural area.
Later the report states: “The realization of the objective to increase the area under organic production to 25 percent will under the assumptions made in this study with respect to technological developments result in a production decline of less than 10 percent and go together with a price increase of just under 13 percent.” Further into the report, it states the largest production decline is expected in wheat (-8 percent) under this scenario.
In the recommendations, three of New AG International’s subject areas are mentioned: “To help reduce/overcome the negative impacts of reduction of pesticides and nutrients, especially for permanent crops, there is an increased need for innovations in crop protection techniques, such as biocontrol, breeding, precision agriculture, biostimulants and other techniques that contribute to the resilience of crop production against pests, weeds and diseases.”
Farm to fork-in-the-road? So, predicated by two of the worst crises since the Second World War, a fork in the road now lies ahead – how to chart a course that maintains agricultural productivity while also maintaining or increasing food security, and if you have to answer to an electorate, keeping price inflation under reasonable control? Some may doubt if converting 25 percent of agricultural land to organic is the answer to that.
So where next? High fertilizer prices are likely to be here for some time, although they should start to come down once the conflict ends in Ukraine, which we all hope is soon. But depending on the time of year, if the northern hemisphere is in full planting mode, or the typical fourth-quarter pull from Brazil for fertilizer imports, could mean we will have to look to 2023 for any respite.
All this will give the biological products and organic fertilizer an opportunity. We are already seeing a continuation of the trend of big fertilizer companies acquiring biological companies (that’s one way to use the revenue from higher prices). The latest is Mosaic’s acquisition of Plant Response. But in the longer term, the agricultural spotlight is likely to stay fixed on security of food supply and affordable food pricing, and so any policies that seem to compromise productivity might come under scrutiny. In this regard, Sri Lanka has already provided the lesson.
The agricultural spotlight is likely to stay fixed on security of food supply and affordable food pricing
March 2022 issue highlights So, let’s direct you to some of the great features and analysis that we have in this issue. Our editor Janet Kanters looks at how plant extracts are being used in plant protection. One of the points to note is that the application of these bioproducts could be beneficial for sustainable production, due to several advantages, such as low toxicity to humans and the environment, enhanced resistance of cultivated plants to biotic and abiotic stress, increased yields and quality of crops, as well as the reduction in the use of mineral fertilizers and pesticides.
In “Rise of the machines” feature, freelance writer Trevor Bacque takes a look at advancements in autonomous agriculture, specifically for broadacre crops such as wheat, canola, soybean and other large acre crops in North America, as well as wheat, rape and vegetable crops in Europe, that are grown on larger tracts of land. While the use of autonomous agriculture equipment, or robots, in greenhouse and orchards, and for fruit and vine crops, is well documented, robotic equipment in broadacre crops is quickly catching up. These machines often focus specifically on tillage, seeding, spraying and harvesting, time-consuming tasks for large-area farmers.
In “Picking a winner” story, we introduce Picklogger, a device from South African company Agri Technovation. I spoke with company joint CEO Erik de Vries in Miami at the Biostimulants World Congress in December and got to handle the device. It is a hand-held snipper that has a sensor that relays a signal each time it snips or picks a fruit. The Picklogger is recording not just the orchard, but also the tree where a fruit was picked. So it is extending the depth in traceability within the supply chain.
Pollination by bees and other insects is one of the natural and essential biological processes for about three-quarters of global crop species. However, pesticides, land clearing and changes in climate are associated with declines in the number of these living creatures. In the story “Artificial Pollination: A ‘blooming’ industry”, editor Janet Kanters introduces some new ways of pollinating plants courtesy of several different research institutions and companies.
The SCRSFs conference programme in May in Poland was mentioned above, and we have a feature on a company who is normally associated with nitrogen inhibitors but Koch Agronomic Services (KAS) has been expanding its offering in recent years, and is extending deep into enhanced efficiency fertilizers, such as coating fertilizer granules with micronutrients. The company also has invested in a long-term research partnership in Brazil and is looking to develop products specifically for the region. I spoke to the team for Latin America (including Mexico) and Sub-Sahara Africa to find out how KAS is playing a much larger role in enhanced efficiency fertilizers.
Sulphate of potash (SOP) was mentioned in the opening section. At New AG International, we’ve been covering SOP projects in Australia. The line-up of projects for Australia’s first SOP production used to be described as a race. But despite commissioning underway in one of them, it seems the front runners have stumbled out of the blocks. But elevated prices in the fertilizer markets might provide a boost to those projects that have yet to break ground.
Regional report New AG International is delighted to be running its annual event in Warsaw, Poland this year – as an in-person event. Our regional report features Poland this issue, which includes some interesting insights on how the country achieved its growth in apple production and exports, without increasing planted area.
Water works In one of our features on irrigation, we speak to Kurita America. Blockages in micro-irrigation systems are a drag on the return on investment for any grower. As Brice Jones, Kurita America’s regional manager for ag water, told me: “There’s no point buying a Ferrari and not changing the oil.” Although it is tempting to add another push-in, it does not help to cure the problem. And that’s where Kurita America comes in, supplying water treatment products to the domestic agricultural market, some of which are for post-harvest. Kurita America has a new product on the horizon that the company says could reduce the need to apply ag-grade sulphuric acid to control soil pH.
And finally, we start a series on what we are calling “Great Debates in Agronomy”. In this issue, we go to the heart of the matter – what is a plant nutrient? That was a question posed in a paper published last year in the journal Plant Soil. “What is a plant nutrient? Changing definitions to advance science and innovation in plant science” authored by Professor Patrick Brown of UC Davis, U.S.; Fang-Jie Zhao of Nanjing Agricultural University, China; and Dr. Achim Dobermann, International Fertilizer Association, France.
Speaking with me from UC Davis, Professor Brown explored the ideas within the paper, and why the question of essentiality has been key to the debate. ●
Two announcements regarding our digital publication that we hope readers will appreciate. Firstly, for those who have kindly filled out the sign-up form to read each issue – those days should now be over. Basically, if you’ve filled the sign-up form once from the same device, that should be it – for all future issues. So, no more form filling! And secondly, we’ve been working on a new download section. We appreciate that some readers still like to download a hard copy to read an article offline at a time when they are away from a digital device. And we also realize they might not want a PDF of the entire issue, which could be a waste of paper. So, we’ve selected features, created their own PDF, and placed them in this section, so that you can download them individually. And of course, those features will stay there, should you need to download them in the future!
Enjoy the issue!
Luke Hutson, Editor-in-Chief
Winter view of apple orchards in Rogow village in Brzeziny County, Lodzkie Voivodeship of Poland
Photo: Konrad Zelazowski