Civilization may not have progressed to nearly this extent without the dependability of our Earth’s managed water resources, particularly as it pertains to agriculture.ⁱ Society’s capacity to develop beyond a primitive state is at least partially caused by advancements in water management and technology.ⁱⁱ From employing gravity systems for flood irrigation, to controlling water flow with aqueducts, to the implementation of digitally integrated water treatment and provision, water innovation has long been a unacknowledged champion of our species’ welfare. Societal reliance on freshwater is taken for granted to such an extent that many of us overlook the growing cascade of constraints set to alter the way we use the scarce resource. In this piece I explore some of the emerging water challenges affecting the global agri-food sector, placing a spotlight on regions and technologies that could mitigate these issues most effectively.

Freshwater stock
Less than three percent of the earth’s total water stock is freshwater, nearly four-fifths of which are permanently frozen and inaccessible.ⁱⁱⁱ After factoring in areas of excessive pollution, acidity and salinization we are left with less than one-tenth of a percent of fresh water supply available for human, agriculture and industry use.^iv In other words, this equates to about 10,000,000 cubic km of fresh, accessible ground and surface water.^v While freshwater is limited in volume, humans are continuing to increase consumption per capita on an annual basis ^vi and, in some geographies, at a pace that far exceeds the rate of replenishment.^vii The vast majority of this increased water usage is attributed to agri-food systems, with many regions consuming more than 85% of available freshwater.^viii Here lies the bone of contention - it is not a question of whether we are using scarce water resources at an unsustainable pace, but rather a discussion of what can be done about it.

Blue Water: Challenges in Consumption
When evaluating freshwater availability, it is essential to consider the components of the water system within and beyond human control. The thought of addressing all water challenges may be too broad a topic, so the conversation becomes more actionable when focus is placed on components that can be changed.
Of freshwater stores, blue water is the most

pertinent topic to international agriculture as farmers have minimal control over deviation in rainwater occurrence and quantity. Water scientists place particular emphasis on
blue water within the context of changes
in climate – namely as it relates to overconsumption and therefore increases in the frequency and severity of global drought.^ix

Water use for irrigation is among the most heavily contested aspects of the modern agricultural system. Agriculture and blue water depletion are inextricably linked. According to a recent report from IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services), nearly 40 percent of the planet’s current food supply is reliant on irrigation. ^xi This issue becomes further pronounced when we consider that nearly half of the world’s population is living within close proximity to catchment basins and aquifers with the ‘severe water stress’ classification.^xii Misallocation of accessible freshwater resources could cause a contraction in global productivity growth and consequently a serious decline in living standards.^xiii Historically, humans have drawn freshwater from where water is abundant and channeled it to arid regions for direct consumption, industry, and irrigation.^xiv
These arid regions, characterized by low precipitation, tend to produce the majority
of the world’s fruit, vegetable, and nut crops.
The dry climate lends itself to a reduced
risk of disease, flood issues, and other circumstances that can lead to crop failure.^xv

Most of our planet’s accessible fresh water is confined in shallow aquifers beneath the earth’s surface.^xviA growing proportion of these non-renewable groundwater sources are reaching critical points of depletion, and they are commonly located in areas which lie beneath the world’s most populous and important agricultural regions. A study from Elliott et al. estimates that up to 100 million irrigated acres may be unable to draw sufficient water resources to support production by the end of the century.^xvii This could lead to decreases in aggregate crop yields if rainfall cannot compensate for the difference. The Ogallala aquifer beneath the US corn belt, for example, is particularly threatened by overuse and pollutant

contamination. A reversal of irrigated to unirrigated land (dryland) is expected to occur in regions such as California’s central valleys, the Colorado River Basin, the North-China Plain, and the Arabian Basin.^xviii Non-renewable groundwater or finite surface waters are primary sources of irrigation in all of these basins. Each have been subject to significant water scarcity issues in the past decade.

Additional challenges arise when considering that the largest water users have historically benefited the most from withdrawing from aquifers. Historical users have a vested interest in retaining the right to use that water until the stores are nearly depleted. This leads to further complications as many households are also dependent on groundwater supplies, leading to contention in the pursuit of equitable resource allocation.^xix Blue water depletion is a complex issue that demands collective action – not solvable by implementing any single policy, action, or framework. Rather it requires a cooperation between all levels of business, government, and society. Irrigated farms which use progressive technology to draw their water from continually measured, renewable deposits (such as adequately endowed lakes and rivers) may be a productive, economical, and sustainable solution to the forthcoming water scarcity challenges.

Stakeholder Complexity in
Agricultural Water Challenges
Food-induced water depletion is more than just a result of farm activity. The reality is complex and integrates all facets of the value chain and its interaction with society. Farms, like any other business, are economic entities that aim to optimize output, scale, and profitability. In the agri-food sector this is accomplished by efficiently fulfilling the needs of consumers. With a growing population and an increasing appetite for high-quality proteins, fruits and vegetables, consumers tend not to realize the impacts of their individual purchasing decisions but rather focus on the needs of the household or community.

As it stands, we have a consumer base in the northern hemisphere that is largely unaware of the extent and scarcity from which water is

consumed through food products. The agri-food system effectively outsources water depletion through its demand for high water-footprint foods^xx. An often-cited example is China’s import of water-intensive soybeans from countries such as Brazil which has led to indirect pressure on deforestation of the Amazon ^xxi. Consumers have historically purchased food and industrial products with the cost of water extraction embedded in the price, but not the true cost of water depletion. This distinction is vital to the topic of global water management, where governments often subsidize water infrastructure, pumping, irrigation, and industrial water use to support farmers and businesses xxii. This has the unintended consequence of promoting the over-use of water and disincentivizing investments in efficiency and innovation.

While the consumption trajectory for high water-footprint foods is continuing to grow, shoppers are beginning to realize the increased demands on water a result of their decisions. As regional water scarcity issues take place more frequently, consumers may begin to search for more sustainable and renewable ways to use the available water supply. Similarly, policymakers are increasingly looking for ways to define the total economic value of water and price it in such a way that scarcity may be accounted for and mitigated ^xxii. It is here where a long-term trend and opportunity for improving sustainable water-use may lie.

How Water Use for Agriculture can be Sustainable and Viable
The pursuit of a sustainable and commercially viable agricultural system has emerged as a goal for farmers, policymakers, processors, and

retailers. Some experts believe it can be achieved through adapting to macro-climatic conditions, incorporating nature-based solutions to sustainable landscapes, and preserving finite and vital dimensions of the food system such as soil, pollinators, and water ^xxiv. In executing on this latter goal, investments in agricultural technology and infrastructure, including efficient irrigation, wastewater reuse, soil moisture sensing, and seed resilience innovation may pave the way for more resilient food systems.

A structural decline in crop production could create supply shocks in the future, potentially raising agricultural commodity prices in the long term ^xxv. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that crop yields could decline by up to 12 percent as a direct consequence of water scarcity in the next three decades ^xxvi. The notion of water-rich regions is predicated on a catchment basin’s capacity to weather a storm of potential water scarcity issues. Certain countries, where irrigation is less necessary for productive agriculture, are at a lower risk of agricultural water scarcity complications. For example, less than four percent of Canada, Brazil, Russia and Australia’s farmland is irrigated compared to about ten percent in the United States and 37 percent in India ^xxvii. Productive agricultural regions that are less dependent on irrigation tend to hedge the risk of groundwater depletion and may not face the same extent of agricultural yield declines. Some academics believe that water-intensive crops such as fruits and nuts should, over time, move to regions where rainfall is abundant, and water-stress is low if they can be grown in these regions ^xxviii.

Farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders can also analyze metrics to determine where water shortages are expected to fall. Incorporating hydrological models into decision-making can set a foundation for preparation and risk adaptation. Statistics such as aquifer replenishment rates, variable on-farm water requirements, and the legal parameters of regional rights are crucial pieces of intelligence that any farmer and landowner should know. Start-ups such as AQUAOSO, based in the western United States, are offering information to a wider array of stakeholders. Further

distributions of localized intelligence allow for market participants to make better resource allocation decisions that incorporate key factors such as groundwater depletion and water
quality issues.

On the farm level, smart irrigation technology is also burgeoning. A suite of sensors is now available to monitor on-site water quality, soil moisture levels, and plant water consumption. Firms such as Netafim and Tevatronic, both based in Israel, integrate precision irrigation with monitoring tools to stop water flow when plant needs are met ^xxix. Crop buyers such as Cargill and Tesco have also placed pressure to promote greater farm-level water sustainability, with the former adopting a ‘Soil & Water Outcomes Fund’ to pay farmers in Iowa for improving water quality and carbon sequestration ^xxx. Drought resistant plant varieties and seeds with lower water requirements are also leading to greater efficiency per calorie produced. Innovations and programs to promote responsible water use have led to some promising outcomes. In Europe, for example, the water consumption per unit of crop production has decreased by 12% between 2005 and 2016, largely due to investments in water efficiency ^xxxi.

Conclusion

High quality freshwater will be a finite resource with limited supply and consistent demand for as long as life inhabits the planet. Although specific water reserves appear to have promise over the next several decades, it is a responsibility for governments to responsibly regulate withdrawal and contamination. It is incumbent upon stakeholders to recognize and plan for local water quantity and quality issues in the context of a changing climate and society. Freshwater depletion is an agricultural issue just as much as it is an environmental one. Here lies a rare circumstance where economic returns may be matched by environmental impact. Farmers, processors, and other stakeholders throughout the value chain have a distinct opportunity to invest towards efficient irrigation and try new technologies in regions that have the replenishing capacity to withdraw water resources sustainably. ●

References

Jeremy Stroud

Freshwater Classification^x

Framework retrieved from
Ray, McInnes & Sanderson (2018).

Jeremy Stroud explores some of the emerging water challenges affecting the global agri-food sector, placing a spotlight on regions and technologies that could mitigate these issues
most effectively.

Behind the Hoover Dam, Nevada, Lake Mead
is the largest manmade reservoir in the USA.

There is perhaps no substance more taken for granted by those in the northern hemisphere than freshwater.

Throughout the centuries, humans have drawn freshwater from where water is abundant and channeled it to arid regions for direct consumption, industry, and irrigation. Illustrated here is Les Ferreres Aqueduct, also known as Pont del Diable. It forms part of the Roman aqueduct built to supply water to the ancient city of Tarraco - now Tarragona, Spain.

"The Ogallala aquifer beneath the US corn belt, for example, is particularly threatened by overuse and pollutant contamination.

A study from Elliott et al.

i Barbier, E. (2019). The Water Paradox. 1st Edition. Book. Yale University Press.

ii Mithen Steven. (2010). The domestication of water: water management in the ancient world and its prehistoric origins in the Jordan Valley. Phil. Trans. R. Soc.

iii Ray, McInnes & Sanderson (2018). Virtual Water: its implication on agriculture and trade.

iv OECD (2012). Global Environmental Outlook to 2050.

v Perlman (2016). Global Water Volume.

vi OECD (2012). Global Environmental Outlook to 2050.

vii Ray, McInnes & Sanderson (2018). Virtual Water: its implication on agriculture and trade.

viii D’Odorico et al., (2020). The global value of water in agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2020, 117 (36) 21985-21993

ix Stahl, Tallaksen & Hannaford. (2018). Drought: Science and Policy. Recent Trends in Historical Drought.

x Ray, McInnes & Sanderson (2018). Virtual Water: its implication on agriculture and trade.

viii D’Odorico et al., (2020). The global value of water in agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2020, 117 (36) 21985-21993

ix Stahl, Tallaksen & Hannaford. (2018). Drought: Science and Policy. Recent Trends in Historical Drought.

x Ray, McInnes & Sanderson (2018). Virtual Water: its implication on agriculture and trade.

xi Diaz et al. (2019). Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

xii OECD (2012). Global Environmental Outlook to 2050.

xiii Nechifor & Winning (2018). Global Economic and Food Security Impacts of Demand-Driven Water Scarcity.

xiv Barbier, E. (2019). The Water Paradox. 1st Edition. Book. Yale University Press.

xv Saroj, Ram & Kumar. (2020). Arid Horticultural Crops: Status and Opportunities under Changing Climatic Conditions Indian Journal of Plant Genetic Resources 33(1):17-31.

xvi Blomquist (2020). Beneath the surface: complexities and groundwater policymaking. Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

xvii Elliott et al. (2014). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

xix Barbier, E. (2019). The Water Paradox. 1st Edition. Book. Yale University Press.

xx Ray, McInnes & Sanderson (2018). Virtual Water: its implication on agriculture and trade.

xxi Gollnow et al. (2018). Property-level direct and indirect deforestation for soybean production in the Amazon region of Mato Grosso, Brazil.

xxii Barbier, E. (2019). The Water Paradox. 1st Edition. Book. Yale University Press.

xxiii Barbier, E. (2019). The Water Paradox. 1st Edition. Book. Yale University Press.

xxiv The Nature Conservancy. (2020). The Little Sustainable Landscapes Book. 1st Edition. Book. Global Canopy Program.

xxv IPCC (2018). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming of 1.5 C. Special Report.

xxvi IPCC (2018). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming of 1.5 C. Special Report.

xxvii The World Bank Group (2015). Development and Agriculture Indicators.

xxviii Barbier, E. (2019). The Water Paradox. 1st Edition. Book. Yale University Press.

xxix Startup Nation Central. (2021). Irrigation Subsector. Website. https://www.startupnationcentral.org/subsector/irrigation/

xxx Manning, L. (2020). Cargill to pay Iowa farmers for carbon sequestration and water quality with Iowa Soybean Association. AgFunder. News Article.

xxxi European Environment Agency. (2019). Indicator Assessment: Water intensity of crop production in Europe. Eurostat Crop Statistics.

xxiv The Nature Conservancy. (2020). The Little Sustainable Landscapes Book. 1st Edition. Book. Global Canopy Program.

xxv IPCC (2018). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming of 1.5 C. Special Report.

xxvi IPCC (2018). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming of 1.5 C. Special Report.

xxvii The World Bank Group (2015). Development and Agriculture Indicators.

xxviii Barbier, E. (2019). The Water Paradox. 1st Edition. Book. Yale University Press.

xxix Startup Nation Central. (2021). Irrigation Subsector. Website. https://www.startupnationcentral.org/
subsector/irrigation/

xxx Manning, L. (2020). Cargill to pay Iowa farmers for carbon sequestration and water quality with Iowa Soybean Association. AgFunder. News Article.

xxxi European Environment Agency. (2019). Indicator Assessment: Water intensity of crop production in Europe. Eurostat Crop Statistics.

As it stands, we have a consumer base in the northern hemisphere that is largely unaware of the extent and scarcity from which water is consumed through food products.

Aerial view of land irrigated with water from Ogallala Aquifer near Garden City, Kansas, USA.

About the author:
Jeremy is an impact investment professional focused on the intersections of agri-food, water, and renewable energy. He currently helps investment firms and operational companies to build out their sustainability strategies, while researching and studying as a graduate student at the University of Oxford.